Poultry Trends - 2017 - 18
18 ❙ PoultryTRENDS FORECAST Forecast annual world poultry meat Copyright WATT Global Media 2017 production growth 2017-26 FIGURE 2: x 1,000 metric tons is expected to slow in the long-term. Slow volume growth is projected in poultry meat production through 2019, before leveling off by 2026 (Figure 2). Globally, GDP growth in 2016 averaged 2.9 percent and saw the slowest growth rate since 2009, according to OECD-FAO projections. While growth in developed economies will remain slow, GDP growth projections are mixed in developing economies, although generally strong (Figure 3). Poultry meat prices began 2016 at low levels, far below recent peaks, but rose for poultry meat over the course of the year. Price levels in 2017 should remain similar to those of 2016, and are only forecast to rise slightly as the market expands. In the long term, nominal prices are expected to rise to around $1,709 per metric ton by 2026, while real prices will decline (Figure 4). 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Year 2023 2024 2025 2026 Source: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-26 FIGURE 4: World poultry meat price projections 2017-26 Copyright WATT Global Media 2017 USD/metric ton Nominal price 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Real price 1,709 1,468 1,309 2017 1,256 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Year 2023 2024 2025 2026 Source: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-26 FIGURE 3: GDP growth rates in select developing countries 2007-16 vs. 2017-26 Copyright WATT Global Media 2017 2017-26 2007-16 India Philippines Vietnam Indonesia China Pakistan Malaysia Argentina Thailand South Africa Brazil Russian Federation 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Percent Source: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-26 www.WATTAgNet.com ❙ 2017